Evolutionary adaptation to global change reduces sustainable fisheries yields.

Global warming is altering the fisheries that underpin food security, but projections of these impacts generally exclude evolutionary processes. We describe a model that forecasts how fish will adapt to future climates and the consequences of that evolution for fisheries yields. We predict that fish in warmer waters will grow faster but evolve earlier maturation, decreasing their maximum size. We predict that evolution ameliorates the impacts of climate change on fish fitness but exacerbates its impacts on fisheries yields—worsening losses by ~50%. Excluding evolution overestimates future yields under all emissions scenarios, but evolution's impacts are greatest under the most extreme scenarios. All life histories may evolve in response to global change—this evolution should be considered in projections of ecosystems and their services. Editor's summary: Anthropogenic climate change is altering environments. Species do respond to such changes, but how quickly this can happen remains unknown. Fish have been shown to evolve rapidly in response to changing conditions, but outcomes are difficult to predict. Kozłowski et al. modeled the selective adaptation to warming waters and predicted that fish in these waters will grow faster but will also mature to smaller sizes (see the Perspective by Travis and Reznick). Although the authors concluded that this will help fish survive warming conditions, it will also decrease fisheries yields, with the greatest decreases under the most extreme conditions. Failing to integrate adaptation in fisheries models greatly overestimates yields, leading to reduced sustainability. —Sacha Vignieri [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]