Are IMF programs raising greenhouse gas emissions in the Global South?

This article examines whether International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs contribute to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Global South by imposing market reforms through lending conditions. Using instrumental variable and difference-in-difference analyses on data from 130 non-ANNEX I countries between 1980 and 2018, the study finds that IMF structural conditions—such as austerity measures and mandated economic liberalization—are associated with higher emissions over time, particularly in agriculture and industry sectors. In contrast, quantitative conditions, which allow more borrower flexibility, tend to correlate with reduced emissions. The findings highlight how IMF-imposed market coercion can exacerbate extractivist economic strategies and environmental degradation, raising important considerations about the intersections of international finance, development policy, and climate change in developing countries.