System Dynamics Analysis of Sugarcane Supply Chain in Indian Sugar Industry.

This article focuses on analyzing the sustainability challenges of the sugar industry in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, using a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach to study the backward sugarcane supply chain. It identifies critical factors such as drawl factor (ratio of sugarcane purchased to produced), sugar recovery rate, and mill operating costs as key determinants of cane arrears—delayed payments owed by mills to farmers—which have been increasing and causing distress among stakeholders. The study's simulations suggest that simultaneous improvements in these factors, along with enhanced supply chain coordination and transparent information flow among farmers, millers, and policymakers, are essential to reduce arrears and achieve sustainable development. The paper also offers operational and policy recommendations aimed at fostering collaboration, improving efficiency, and addressing systemic issues like information asymmetry and regulatory constraints that currently hinder the industry's growth.