EFFECT OF FRAGMENTATION ON THE POPULATION VIABILITY OF JAGUARS (PANTHERA ONCA) IN THE CALAKMUL BIOSPHERE RESERVE.

Jaguars are a key species in tropical forests; however they require large natural areas with good connectivity to maintain their populations. This requirement is often challenged by the construction of transport roads and the subsequent fragmentation. One such example is the Calakmul Biological Reserve which is the largest area for jaguar conservation in Mexico, and it is fragmented by two roads and recently the Maya Train. Therefore, the aim of this article is to model the effect of fragmentation on the jaguar population in this reserve. Twelve predictive models were built using the Vortex simulator and estimated the probability of persistence of jaguars depending on the fragment size. The models show that road fragmentation is affecting the probability of persistence of the population, but the addition of the fragmentation due to Maya Train has little direct effect on the jaguars. Jaguar populations are likely to persist for more than 100 years if the area they inhabit is bigger than 1000 km2. Overall, the Maya Train has moderate effect since it separates two big fragments that can maintain populations by themselves. however further fragmentation, especially combined with other human activities, could endanger the jaguars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]