JOURNAL ARTICLE

Magnetic predictions.

  • Published In: Astronomy & Geophysics, 2023, v. 64, n. 2. P. 2.22 1 of 3

  • Database: Academic Search Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Rice, Oliver 3 of 3

Abstract

This article focuses on research into modeling the magnetic field in the solar corona to improve predictions of eruptions of magnetic flux ropes, which are key drivers of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Using a simplified Magnetofriction (MF) model combined with a novel "outflow field" approach that incorporates the solar wind, the research simulates flux rope formation and eruptions more efficiently than full Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. The study identifies diagnostic ratios of magnetic quantities that can predict eruptions with over 85% accuracy up to a week in advance, although the commonly proposed "eruptivity index" was not effective in this model. While promising, the work highlights the need for more accurate solar surface observations and plans to extend the model using full MHD simulations to enhance predictive capabilities.

Additional Information

  • Source:Astronomy & Geophysics. 2023/04, Vol. 64, Issue 2, p2.22
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Publication Date:2023
  • ISSN:1366-8781
  • DOI:10.1093/astrogeo/atad010
  • Accession Number:162442683
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