Predicting future publishing success among sociologists at time of hire in the US Higher education system.

This article examines how the early publication records of newly hired assistant professors in sociology predict their future publication productivity. Analyzing data from nearly 500 U.S.-based sociologists, the study finds that the total number of articles published at hiring is not a significant predictor of later productivity, whereas the number of sole-authored articles at hire positively correlates with subsequent publication output. Additionally, having a PhD from a top 10 ranked sociology program is negatively associated with total post-hire article quantity but positively associated with publishing in the field's two leading journals, the American Sociological Review (ASR) and the American Journal of Sociology (AJS). The authors interpret these patterns as reflecting distinct "publishing scripts" shaped by doctoral pedigree, scholarly identity, and ability, with sole authorship serving as a key early indicator of cumulative advantage in academic publishing. The study also notes persistent gender and racial disparities in publication productivity, suggesting structural and social factors may influence these outcomes.