Will the Iran War Deliver a Long-Predicted U.S. Recession?

The article examines whether the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran will trigger a long-predicted U.S. recession, emphasizing that the conflict's duration and the compounding of economic shocks are critical factors. It highlights that while energy price spikes influence inflation, wages, investment, financial conditions, and monetary policy, the resilience of the post-COVID U.S. economy and anchored inflation expectations differentiate the current situation from past energy crises. The authors caution against relying too heavily on historical analogies and recommend that executives focus on analyzing evolving geopolitical and economic drivers rather than making definitive recession predictions. Ultimately, the risk lies in a confluence of shocks overwhelming economic resilience, but the outcome remains uncertain given the unpredictable duration of the conflict and its transmission channels to the real economy.