Construction of an abatement benefit model for the steel industry driven by technological innovation: A perspective on emerging technology factors.

This article focuses on developing a quantitative abatement benefit model for the steel industry that incorporates an Emerging Technology Factor (ETF) to objectively assess the impact of technological innovation on carbon emission reductions. Using patent and academic literature data, the ETF quantifies the knowledge base and maturity of decarbonization technologies, improving the accuracy of emission reduction potential and cost-effectiveness analyses. Applied to China's steel sector under three policy scenarios, the model estimates emission reductions ranging from 406 to 822 million tons by 2030, with technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), ammonia-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (Ammonia-DRI-EAF), and hydrogen-based DRI-EAF showing high potential and cost-effectiveness. While decarbonization technologies entail significant costs, the ETF provides a scientific basis for optimizing technology deployment and policy-making to support the steel industry's transition toward carbon neutrality.