Open or closed? China's dilemmas in a changing geopolitical and geoeconomic order.

The article focuses on the policy dilemma facing China between pursuing greater economic openness to address significant challenges—such as a weakening property market, demographic decline, and problematic loans from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—and maintaining domestic closure in the name of security. China's historical experiences of foreign invasion and exclusion contribute to a cautious attitude toward external engagement, even as it actively participates in global institutions like the United Nations and promotes initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI). While economic and demographic pressures suggest a need for more openness, especially regionally, the Chinese Communist Party’s emphasis on security and political control under Xi Jinping limits transparency and constrains domestic innovation and foreign talent inflows. The potential for regional conflict, particularly over Taiwan, remains a critical factor that could disrupt China’s economic trajectory and its relations with the liberal world.