'Lying with numbers' in international arbitration against states.

The article critically examines the challenges and shortcomings of valuation practices in international arbitration involving states, with a focus on the Process & Industrial Developments (P&ID) Limited v Nigerian Ministry of Petroleum case. It highlights how claimants often advance enormous claims based on speculative, poorly substantiated valuations—frequently relying on discounted cash flow (DCF) models for unbuilt or unproven projects—exploiting arbitrators' limited understanding of business economics and project risks. The article illustrates these issues through examples such as the Odyssey Marine v Mexico arbitration, where expert valuations ignored fundamental economic and technical realities, and discusses how systemic incentives encourage experts to "lie with numbers" by cloaking advocacy in technical jargon. It further critiques arbitrators' general lack of commercial expertise, the manipulation of discount rates, and the absence of effective procedural safeguards, concluding that these factors collectively undermine the reliability and fairness of international arbitration awards against states.