Risk Assessment and Mitigation of LNG Export - Permit Delays using ISO 31000:2018 and Decision-Analysis: A Case Study of PT Sulawesi.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export activities in Indonesia operate within a capital-intensive and highly regulated environment, where regulatory uncertainty can translate rapidly into operational disruption and significant financial loss. Following the enactment of Government Regulation No. 61 of 2024, LNG exporters are required to prioritize domestic gas allocation before export approval, introducing timing uncertainty in the issuance of export permits. In 2025, this regulatory transition resulted in recurring LNG export-permit delays for PT Sulawesi, a single-train LNG producer with limited operational flexibility. This study assesses and mitigates the risk of LNG export-permit delays at PT Sulawesi using the ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework, complemented by systems thinking and decision-analysis tools. A qualitative case-study approach is employed, supported by quantitative estimation of financial impacts. Data were obtained from internal company reports, semi-structured interviews with senior management, and official regulatory and policy documents issued by ESDM, SKK Migas, and the Ministry of Trade. Risk mapping, gap analysis, and scenario-based quantitative modelling are applied to estimate revenue at risk and evaluate the effectiveness of existing and proposed controls. The findings show that export-permit delays represent a structural regulatory timing risk rather than a purely administrative issue. The inherent risk score is assessed as high to critical (20), with potential profit downside of approximately USD 40 million at a minimum under a high-exposure scenario. Following mitigation measures and proposed governance enhancements, the residual risk score is reduced to 12. This study contributes empirically by demonstrating the practical application of ISO 31000:2018 combined with decision analysis in managing regulatory risk in LNG operations and provides actionable insights for LNG producers operating under similar regulatory constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]