When Scenario Planning Fails.

The article focuses on how Nordic company leaders have adapted traditional scenario planning in response to novel and unforeseen risks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It highlights that while scenario planning is effective for foreseeable risks, it often fails with unprecedented shocks, prompting leaders to expand scenarios considered, analyze organizational vulnerabilities, develop flexible action guidelines, and integrate crisis management into company structures. The study emphasizes the importance of balancing preparedness with adaptability, suggesting that success lies not in predicting the unknowable future but in building organizational capacity to respond effectively to unexpected events.