Foreign investments and tariff protection revisited: correcting the trade balance of the Russian Empire, 1880–1913.

This article investigates the accuracy of Russian foreign trade statistics from 1880 to 1913, revealing that import values were systematically overstated before the introduction of a new price assignment system in 1898, while export data were generally accurate. Using a double-test approach comparing Russian records with those of major trading partners and adjusting for freight, insurance, and territorial differences, the study reconstructs import series and finds that Russia's trade surplus in 1881–1897 was understated by about 26 percent. The corrected data indicate that Russian trade policy was more protectionist in the 1880s and 1890s than previously thought, with ad valorem equivalent tariffs increasing by up to 4 percentage points. Furthermore, the revised trade balance reduces the estimated annual current account deficit by 67 percent for 1885–1897, implying significantly lower net foreign capital inflows before the adoption of the gold standard in 1897, after which foreign investment inflows increased more than thirteenfold. These findings contribute to understanding Russia's economic development, trade policy, and capital flows during its industrialization and the first era of globalization.