JOURNAL ARTICLE

The Uniqueness Trap.

  • Published In: Harvard Business Review, 2025, v. 103, n. 2. P. 118 1 of 3

  • Database: Business Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Flyvbjerg, Bent; Budzier, Alexander; Christodoulou, M. D.; Zottoli, M. 3 of 3

Abstract

The article focuses on the concept of uniqueness bias in project management, which is the tendency of project managers to perceive their projects as one of a kind despite evidence that few projects are truly unique. This perception leads to underestimating risks, poor decision-making, and significant cost and schedule overruns. Research analyzing over 1,300 IT projects found no correlation between actual uniqueness and perceived uniqueness, but a strong link between perceived uniqueness and project underperformance. To counteract this bias, managers are advised to seek analogues within or outside their organizations, break projects into comparable components, and apply forecasting and risk assessment tools such as reference class forecasting, similarity-based forecasting, premortems, and noise audits to improve decision-making and project outcomes.

Additional Information

  • Source:Harvard Business Review. 2025/03, Vol. 103, Issue 2, p118
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Business and Management
  • Publication Date:2025
  • ISSN:0017-8012
  • Accession Number:182913933
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