Transition of the life cycle of the gold and jewellery innovation ecosystem and development of its future scenarios: The case of Mashhad, Iran's second-largest metropolis.

This article examines the current decline and potential futures of the Mashhad Gold and Jewellery Innovation Ecosystem (MGJIE) in Iran, the country’s second-largest city and a historic center for gold and jewellery production. Using scenario planning methods—specifically normative scenarios for a 2032 horizon and exploratory scenarios for 2047—the study identifies key drivers influencing the ecosystem’s renewal or further decline, such as government support, branding, open innovation culture, trust-building, and the impact of international sanctions. Three exploratory scenarios illustrate varying degrees of ecosystem renewal, emphasizing the roles of stakeholder collaboration, legal and financial support, and market expansion, particularly toward neighboring regions and China. The research highlights the novel application of combining innovation ecosystem theory with scenario planning in the jewellery industry and suggests that such approaches can inform policy and strategic planning in similar developing-country contexts.