The difficulty of detecting inbreeding depression and its effect on conservation decisions.

This article focuses on the challenges of statistically detecting inbreeding depression and its implications for conservation decision-making, using case studies of the Isle Royale wolf population (Canis lupus) and the critically endangered vacquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus). It demonstrates that traditional statistical analyses often have low power to reliably detect inbreeding depression, as illustrated by the Isle Royale wolves, which are known to have suffered extinction-level genetic decline despite weak statistical evidence from regression models. The study further shows that conservation decisions depend not only on statistical inferences about inbreeding depression but also heavily on normative values assigned to population persistence and mitigation costs, sometimes overshadowing scientific uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of transparent communication about both scientific uncertainties and the value judgments underlying conservation actions.