From the Streets to the Voting Booth: The Electoral Effect of Grassroots Mobilization Against the Far Right.

The article examines the effectiveness of anti-far-right grassroots mobilization by analyzing the Sardine Movement, an Italian social movement that emerged during the 2020 regional elections to counter the far-right League party. Using municipality-level electoral data and a difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that local exposure to Sardine rallies significantly reduced far-right vote shares by about 8 percent in treated municipalities. The movement's impact appears linked to signaling widespread opposition to far-right politics, which influenced voter behavior and benefited center-left parties, especially where left-wing support was strong but fragmented. While Sardine's momentum was short-lived and did not institutionalize long-term political change, the findings highlight the potential of civil society mobilization as a tool to curb far-right electoral success.