JOURNAL ARTICLE

No Panic in Pandemic: The Impact of Individual Choice on Public Health Policy.

  • Published In: Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (M&SOM) (INFORMS), 2024, v. 26, n. 5. P. 1622 1 of 3

  • Database: Business Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Bai, Miao; Cui, Ying; Kong, Guangwen; Zhang, Anthony Zhenhuan 3 of 3

Abstract

The article focuses on optimizing the timing and intensity of public health interventions—specifically lockdown and social distancing policies—to contain infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19 while balancing socioeconomic costs and individual behavioral responses. Using a multinomial logit choice model integrated with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) disease transmission framework and a repeated Stackelberg game, the study finds that individuals tend to engage in higher activity levels than socially optimal due to ignoring the externalities of their actions. Consequently, the optimal implementation of lockdown and social distancing may occur at moderate, rather than peak, disease prevalence levels. Numerical analyses based on Minnesota COVID-19 data demonstrate that social distancing is generally more cost-effective than lockdown, and that accounting for individual responses is crucial for effective public health policy design.

Additional Information

  • Source:Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (M&SOM) (INFORMS). 2024/09, Vol. 26, Issue 5, p1622
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Consumer Health
  • Publication Date:2024
  • ISSN:1523-4614
  • DOI:10.1287/msom.2022.0514
  • Accession Number:179561473
  • Copyright Statement:Copyright of Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (M&SOM) (INFORMS) is the property of INFORMS: Institute for Operations Research & the Management Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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