The Microfoundations of Nuclear Proliferation: Evidence from South Korea.

This article examines how South Koreans form their beliefs about nuclear weapon acquisition, analyzing both structural-level factors—such as North Korea’s ballistic missile launches, nuclear tests, and leadership summits—and individual-level factors including perceptions of nuclear imbalance, trust in U.S. security guarantees, and political party identification. Using a novel time-series dataset based on annual surveys from the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS), the study finds that structural events do not immediately influence public opinion but have cumulative effects over several months: North Korea’s provocations increase support for nuclearization, while South Korea–U.S. summits gradually reduce it, and denuclearization summits initially decrease but later increase support due to failed negotiations. At the individual level, fear of nuclear inferiority, desire for autonomous nuclear decision-making, and conservative party support are positively associated with pro-nuclear attitudes. The findings highlight the complex interplay between external security threats, elite political messaging, and domestic dispositions in shaping South Korean public opinion on nuclear proliferation.