Projection of climate change impact on tropical cyclone hazard in Western North Pacific basin.

This article focuses on assessing the impact of climate change on extreme tropical cyclone (TC) wind speeds in the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin using a statistical dynamics synthetic TC full track model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585) scenario. Three approaches are proposed to model future TC genesis and intensity by integrating marine and atmospheric parameters from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs), covering historical (1981–2010), mid-century (2041–2070), and late-century (2071–2100) periods. Approaches #1 and #2 use direct GCM outputs for TC detection or genesis index combined with a physics-based intensity model, while Approach #3 applies relative changes from GCMs to observed datasets to adjust genesis and intensity models. Results indicate a general northward migration of TC genesis and tracks, with increased frequency of intense TCs and higher extreme wind speeds projected at higher latitudes, whereas low-latitude coastal cities show little to no increase. The study highlights uncertainties among GCM projections but finds consistent patterns of increased TC hazard in mid to high latitude coastal regions, providing valuable insights for future TC risk assessment and infrastructure resilience planning.