Future sea-level rise in northwest Mexico is projected to decrease the distribution and habitat quality of the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot).

This article focuses on assessing the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal wetlands and the potential distribution of Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot), a threatened long-distance migratory shorebird, in Northwest Mexico by 2050. Using species distribution modeling combined with a moderate SLR static inundation scenario, the study predicts that 55% of coastal wetlands in the region will be permanently submerged, leading to an average 20% decline in habitat suitability for C. c. roselaari. Eight of the ten most important wetlands for this subspecies are expected to lose significant portions of their highly suitable habitat, with two sites losing all such habitat, suggesting a likely contraction of the species’ nonbreeding range. The findings highlight the vulnerability of shorebird habitats outside the north temperate zone and emphasize the need for urgent conservation actions to enhance wetland resilience and accommodate inland migration of these ecosystems amid rising sea levels.