Cold blood in warming waters: Effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitats in a changing climate.

This article focuses on modeling how climate change-driven variations in air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater affect water temperature and thermal habitat suitability for the threatened Gulf Sturgeon (Acipenser desotoi) in the Choctawhatchee River, Florida. The study developed and validated precipitation- and groundwater-corrected air–water temperature models that outperformed conventional air temperature-only models, demonstrating that precipitation and groundwater significantly influence water temperature, especially in Gulf Sturgeon summer aggregation ("holding") areas, which are cooler and more hydrologically buffered than non-aggregation areas. Projections under 16 climate change scenarios (2024–2074) indicate that warming water temperatures will increasingly limit thermally suitable habitat and safe periods for fieldwork activities such as surgery and sampling, with holding areas potentially experiencing thermal degradation comparable to or greater than other river reaches. The research provides fisheries managers with a cost-effective, accurate modeling framework to forecast thermal habitat conditions and optimize conservation and management strategies for Gulf Sturgeon and similar species amid climate change.