CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK DEMAND IN INDIA: CASE OF HETEROGENEOUS CLIMATE ZONES.

This article examines the climate sensitivity of daily electricity consumption and peak demand across six energy-intensive Indian states—Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu—representing heterogeneous climate zones. Using a non-parametric method called multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), the study identifies unique temperature and relative humidity thresholds for each state that non-linearly influence electricity use, with cooling demand generally more sensitive than heating demand. Punjab exhibits the highest temperature sensitivity for cooling electricity consumption (8.2%), while Uttar Pradesh shows the lowest (1.2%), despite both being in the composite climate zone. The study also finds that peak electricity demand in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is more responsive to rising minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures, highlighting the importance of state-specific climate factors in forecasting electricity demand and informing climate adaptation and energy planning strategies in India.