Macro-analysis of climatic factors for COVID-19 pandemic based on Köppen–Geiger climate classification.

This article focuses on a global macroanalysis of the impact of climate on the transmission of COVID-19 using the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, which categorizes climates based on temperature, precipitation, and seasonal variation. By integrating dynamic infectious disease models and statistical methods with epidemiological and meteorological data from 189 countries or regions during 2020 and 2021, the study identifies four climate-based risk regions for COVID-19 incidence and reproduction numbers. It finds that cold steppe arid climates (Bsk) and wet temperate climates (Cfa, Dfa) are associated with higher COVID-19 transmission, with an optimal temperature around 10 °C and average humidity near 71%, though sensitivity to temperature, humidity, and precipitation varies by hemisphere and risk region. The study also concludes that socioeconomic factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination coverage, and population density do not differ significantly across these climate risk regions, suggesting that climate factors play a fundamental role in regional differences in COVID-19 spread.