Is it worth implementing the Blue Sky Defense Battle initiative? A cost-benefit analysis of the Chengdu case.

This article evaluates the economic efficiency of China’s Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle (2018–2020) by analyzing its implementation in Chengdu. The study estimates that Chengdu’s total abatement cost was approximately 8.77 billion yuan, primarily driven by structural adjustments in the transportation sector, while the health benefits from reduced PM2.5-related diseases amounted to about 9.79 billion yuan, indicating that health benefits outweighed costs. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the analysis confirms a high probability (99.98%) that the health benefits exceed abatement costs, even when including expenses for promoting new energy vehicles and infrastructure. The study focuses on health benefits related to PM2.5 reductions, acknowledging that other ecological and socioeconomic benefits were not quantified, thus underestimating total gains. Policy implications highlight the potential for further cost-effective emission reductions through stronger regulation and continued structural optimization in energy, industry, and transportation sectors.