Pigs and Corn. Predicting market cycles without over-thinking them.

The article discusses the concept of predicting market cycles and questions whether we may be overthinking it. It explains the four stages of an economic cycle: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough, and the characteristics of each phase. Different economic theories, such as monetarism and Keynesian economics, offer different perspectives on the causes of market cycles. The article also introduces Samuel Benner, a farmer from the 1800s who accurately predicted market ups and downs using his knowledge of supply and demand for crops. Benner's predictions have been surprisingly accurate, aligning with significant financial events over the past 100 years. However, it is advised to use his predictions as a general guideline and conduct further analysis for optimal profit. [Extracted from the article]