A Test of the Association Between Racial Economic Threat and Racial Disparities in Jail Incarceration Across Counties in the United States.

This article examines the economic threat component of Blalock's racial threat theory, which posits that increased economic resources among Black populations lead to heightened formal social control (e.g., incarceration) by the White majority, with this relationship being curvilinear and moderated by the size of the Black population. Using data from 2,092 U.S. counties, the study finds that while economic threat and racial disparities in jail incarceration are related in a curvilinear manner, the relationship differs from Blalock’s original predictions: disparities decrease as Black economic power and population size increase, indicating a negative association rather than a positive one. The findings suggest that racial disparities in incarceration are lowest in counties where Blacks have greater economic parity and demographic presence, implying that economic and demographic strength among Black communities may reduce discriminatory formal social control. The study highlights the complexity of racial threat dynamics in contemporary contexts and suggests that addressing economic inequalities could have broader impacts on reducing racial disparities in the criminal justice system.