JOURNAL ARTICLE

How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

  • Published In: Harvard Business Review, 2024, v. 102, n. 4. P. 84 1 of 3

  • Database: Business Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Carlsson-Szlezak, Philipp; Swartz, Paul 3 of 3

Abstract

The article focuses on the challenges corporate leaders and investors face in accurately assessing macroeconomic risks amid recent shocks, crises, and false alarms. It argues that traditional economic models have failed to predict these events reliably, especially during times of crisis, and that overreliance on such models and doom-laden media narratives can lead to costly misjudgments. Instead, executives are encouraged to cultivate their own judgment through an eclectic approach that integrates diverse perspectives, emphasizes causal narratives, and balances rational optimism with skepticism. The article illustrates this approach across real, financial, and global economic risks, highlighting the importance of understanding context and policy responses rather than relying solely on forecasts or headline-driven pessimism.

Additional Information

  • Source:Harvard Business Review. 2024/07, Vol. 102, Issue 4, p84
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Economics
  • Publication Date:2024
  • ISSN:0017-8012
  • Accession Number:177779173
  • Copyright Statement:Copyright © Harvard Business Publishing. All Rights Reserved. This content is intended for individual research use only, subject to the following: Unless permission is expressly granted in a separate license, this content may NOT be used for classroom or teaching use, which includes teaching materials, electronic reserves, course packs or persistent linking from syllabi. Please consult your institution's librarian about the nature of relevant licenses held by your institution and the restrictions that may or may not apply.Unless permission is expressly granted in a separate license, this content may NOT be used in corporate training and/or as corporate learning materials. For corporate users, please consult the specific terms of your company's license(s) for complete information and restrictions. For more information and teaching resources from Harvard Business Publishing including Harvard Business School Cases, eLearning products, and business simulations please visit hbsp.harvard.edu. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Looking to go deeper into this topic? Look for more articles on EBSCOhost.