How is Labour Demand Changing Across European Regions in the Post-COVID-19 Era.

This article proposes a novel methodology to measure job polarization from the unmet labor demand side, focusing on the European Union (EU) regional labor market during the post-COVID-19 period. Using Self-Organizing Maps for clustering and Generalized Joint Regression Models (GJRM) to jointly model demand for high-skill (Managers and Professionals) and low-skill (Elementary) occupations, the study analyzes Cedefop’s online job advertisements (OJAs) alongside Eurostat regional statistics. Empirical findings reveal strong labor demand polarization, high-skill occupation saturation, and educational mismatches—particularly overqualification affecting women—across EU regions. Key determinants of polarization include tertiary education levels, immigration inflows, and aging populations, while sectors such as transportation and accommodation/food services play significant roles. The study highlights the value of demand-side analysis for understanding labor market dynamics and calls for improved alignment between education and labor market needs, enhanced human capital investment, and better integration of real-time labor demand data for policy development.