Digital disparities and care burdens: Pathways to school dropout among teenage mothers in the Colombian Caribbean.

This study investigates the causal pathways leading to school dropout among teenage mothers aged 14–18 in three major urban centers of Colombia's Caribbean region—Barranquilla, Cartagena, and Santa Marta—during 2024. Using a quasi-experimental design with propensity score matching on 173 adolescent mothers enrolled in public schools, the research identifies three primary direct causal factors influencing dropout: institutional support quality, digital access conditions, and residential instability. Statistical analyses, including Structural Bayesian Networks, Quantile Binomial Poisson Regression, and Generalized Treatment Effect Models, demonstrate that comprehensive support services addressing digital connectivity, psychosocial assistance, and childcare access significantly reduce dropout probability by about one-third, with stronger effects observed among more vulnerable subgroups and notable city-specific variations favoring Cartagena. The findings emphasize the importance of integrated institutional interventions that simultaneously tackle digital inequalities, care burdens, and psychosocial support to improve educational retention for teenage mothers in resource-constrained urban settings.