Teacher Shortages: A Framework for Understanding and Predicting Vacancies.

This article develops a conceptual framework to understand and predict teacher shortages at multiple geographic levels—state, region, district, and school—and examines empirical data on unfilled teaching positions in Tennessee public schools during Fall 2019. The study finds that teacher shortages are highly localized, with substantial variation between schools and subjects within districts, and that aggregate statewide measures mask this heterogeneity. Key predictors of vacancies include fewer local early-career teachers, lower district salary growth, poorer working conditions, and higher historical teacher attrition rates. Additionally, subject-specific staffing challenges vary widely across and within districts, underscoring the need for targeted, context-sensitive policy interventions rather than broad, uniform solutions. The findings highlight the importance of detailed, disaggregated data on teacher labor markets to effectively identify and address localized shortages.