Dropout Epidemic—Who Is (Not) Graduating High School: A 4-Year Analysis of Predictive Indicators.

This article examines high school dropout and on-time graduation rates at a large, urban Virginia high school over four cohorts, focusing on the roles of prior academic achievement, attendance, and exclusionary discipline. The study found that Latinx male English language learners (ELs), particularly those labeled as "sliders" (students who do not graduate within the standard four years), were disproportionately affected by exclusionary discipline, chronic absenteeism, and failure on Virginia's Standards of Learning (SOL) tests, contributing to higher dropout rates. Latinx females and Black students were also overrepresented among noncompleters compared to their White peers. The findings highlight systemic inequities impacting minoritized and low-socioeconomic-status students and suggest that consistent attendance, passing standardized assessments, and avoiding exclusionary discipline are strongly associated with on-time graduation. The article concludes with recommendations for school practices, policy reforms, research directions, and educational leadership preparation aimed at addressing structural barriers and promoting equitable graduation outcomes.