Is 'immigrant optimism' in educational choice a problem? Ethnic gaps in Swedish upper secondary school completion.

This article examines the concept of "immigrant optimism" in educational choices among youth of immigrant background in Sweden, focusing on whether their ambitious selection of academically demanding upper secondary school programmes leads to lower completion rates—a phenomenon termed the "immigrant optimism trap." Using longitudinal register data from a full Swedish cohort (n ≈ 90,000), the study finds that students of immigrant origin have a 12 percentage point lower upper secondary completion rate than their Swedish-background peers, partly due to their tendency to choose more demanding programmes at given grade point averages (GPAs). However, simulation analyses reveal that aligning immigrant students' programme choices with those of native students or imposing GPA-based restrictions on programme access would only marginally reduce this completion gap by about 3 percentage points, despite substantially limiting student choice. The authors conclude that immigrant optimism is not primarily responsible for non-completion and likely serves as a positive factor for integration by enhancing opportunities for tertiary education and professional advancement.