Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing*.

This article examines how Donald Trump's 2015–2016 presidential campaign rallies influenced law enforcement behavior toward Black drivers in the United States. Analyzing nearly 35 million traffic stops, the study finds that the probability a stopped driver is Black increases by approximately 5.7% in the 30 days following a Trump rally, an effect that is immediate, lasts up to 60 days, and is not explained by changes in driver behavior. The increase is concentrated among officers with higher baseline racial bias and in counties with greater present-day racial resentment, a history of slavery, and racial violence during the Jim Crow era. Furthermore, the effect intensifies when Trump's rally speeches contain explicit or implicit racial references, particularly related to crime, suggesting that racially charged political rhetoric can exacerbate discriminatory policing practices.