Is the "sailing-ship effect" misnamed? A statistical inquiry of the case sail vs steam in maritime transportation.

This article focuses on the "sailing-ship effect," a phenomenon where an incumbent technology intentionally improves in response to the emergence of a competing new technology, using the 19th-century technological battle between sail and steam ship propulsion as a case study. Through fresh statistical analysis of British shipbuilding data from 1814 to 1914, the authors identify two structural break points in the evolution of sailing ships' cargo capacity, demonstrating significant improvements in sail technology between 1814 and 1874, despite steamships outperforming sailing ships from 1849 onward. The study finds that sailing shipbuilders deliberately enhanced their technology to remain competitive for several decades before sail technology reached its performance limits around 1892, after which steamships became dominant. These findings support the existence of the sailing-ship effect in the original case and contribute to broader discussions on technological persistence, innovation trajectories, and policy implications in contexts where old and new technologies coexist and compete.