Analysis of demand, generation, and emission for long-term sustainable power system planning using LEAP: The case of Bangladesh.

This article focuses on long-term electricity demand, generation, and emission scenario analysis for Bangladesh's power sector using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) tool. It projects electricity demand under four scenarios—business-as-usual (BAU), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG), and high growth (HG)—and evaluates eight generation fuel mix scenarios for each demand case up to 2041, considering sectoral consumption, GDP growth, and emissions. The study finds that industrial and household sectors dominate future electricity consumption, with generation capacities ranging from 58,230 MW (BAU/LG) to 68,830 MW (MG/HG) by 2041. Among generation scenarios, P8 (for BAU/LG) and Q8 (for MG/HG), which balance reduced oil use, increased renewables, and coal, are identified as suitable options for energy reliability and emission reduction. The analysis offers a comprehensive framework integrating demand, generation, and emissions domains, providing insights for sustainable power planning in developing countries with fossil-fuel-dominated electricity sectors.