More reason for humility in our relationships with ecological communities.

This article examines the dominant "nature-as-machine" worldview in environmental decision-making, which assumes nature operates by discoverable rules that enable precise forecasting and control, and contrasts it with a "nature-as-history" perspective that views ecological systems as shaped by inherently unpredictable, historically contingent events. Drawing on recent empirical research, including a case study of wolf and moose populations on Isle Royale, the authors argue that the historical contingency hypothesis (HCH) provides a robust explanation for ecological dynamics without relying on precise forecasts, highlighting the limitations of overconfident predictions. The article advocates for incorporating the virtue of humility into environmental decisions, emphasizing ethical frameworks such as virtue ethics alongside consequentialism and deontology, and suggests that humility can guide more cautious and just conservation practices, including greater recognition of Indigenous knowledge. Ultimately, it calls for balancing mechanistic and historical views of nature to improve the humility and effectiveness of environmental policy and management.