Influence of Presenting Uncertainty Information on the Evaluation of Watershed Plans by Users of an Automation-Assisted Environmental Decision Support System.

This article investigates how the presentation of asymmetric uncertainty information influences user evaluations of watershed conservation plans within an Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) called WRESTORE. Using a novel Asymmetric Uncertainty Metric (AUM) to represent uncertainty in peak flow reduction (PFR) benefits for flood mitigation, the study found that users rated conservation plans differently when uncertainty was displayed versus when it was not, with higher ratings for plans exhibiting positive uncertainty bias. End-users—intended stakeholders such as public and private agency professionals—were more sensitive to uncertainty information than test-users (graduate and undergraduate students), and participants with statistical training showed greater responsiveness to uncertainty than those without. These findings highlight the importance of effectively communicating asymmetric uncertainty in EDSS interfaces and suggest that statistical training may enhance decision-making under uncertainty in environmental planning contexts.