The Influence of Earning Industry Certifications on High School Graduation: Evidence from Florida.

This article examines the impact of earning industry-recognized certifications on on-time high school graduation, focusing on Florida's Career and Professional Education (CAPE) Act program. Using longitudinal data and a quasi-experimental design with propensity score weighting, the study finds that students who earn industry certifications in grades 10 through 12 are significantly more likely—about four times as likely—to graduate on time compared to non-earners. The positive effect is especially pronounced for students at risk of dropping out and those who are economically disadvantaged, with certification earning associated with an average 7.9 percentage point increase in graduation rates overall and a 12.1 point increase for at-risk students. The study highlights demographic differences in certification rates and suggests that integrating certification programs into school curricula and promoting them to underserved and at-risk students may enhance high school completion outcomes.