The Effect of Violent Extremism on Local Conflicts and Vice Versa: Differences and Similarities among Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

This article examines the reciprocal relationship between violent jihadist insurgencies and local militia violence in the Sahel region of Africa, focusing on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) set from 2012 to 2021, the study finds that jihadist and militia attacks tend to be reactive rather than simultaneous, with violence by one group increasing the likelihood of retaliatory violence by the other, particularly at sub-regional administrative levels over a weekly timeframe. The impact of jihadist violence on militia activity is strongest in Mali, where Islamist groups exploit ethnic cleavages and local grievances, while in Burkina Faso, militia violence more significantly provokes jihadist attacks amid entrenched ethnic tensions. In Niger, the association between the two types of violence is weaker and less consistent, possibly reflecting more effective government counter-terrorism policies. The findings highlight how local socio-political dynamics, ethnic divisions, and government responses shape the patterns and escalation of violent extremism and communal conflict in the Sahel.