Bus Rapid Transit Impact on Property Prices: Comparing Two Natural Experiments in El Paso, TX.

This article examines the causal effects of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) station openings on residential property values in El Paso, Texas, using two natural experiments and a synthetic control methodology to create comparable counterfactual groups. The study compares two BRT interventions: the Mesa corridor (opened in 2014) and the combined Alameda and Dyer corridors (opened in 2019), analyzing house transaction data within a half-mile radius of stations against similar urban corridors as controls. Results indicate a significant positive impact on housing prices near the Alameda and Dyer lines—serving lower-income neighborhoods—while no significant price change was observed along the more affluent and transit-mature Mesa corridor. The findings suggest that BRT investments may yield greater economic benefits in less developed, lower-income areas, highlighting the importance of context-specific transit planning and policies to promote equitable development and mitigate displacement risks.