Muddied waters: Freedom-of-navigation operations as signals in the South China Sea.

This article examines freedom-of-navigation operations (FONOPs) led primarily by the United States in the South China Sea as a form of foreign-policy signalling, highlighting their inherent ambiguity despite their official legal purpose to uphold freedom of navigation. It identifies three main sources of this ambiguity: the use of warships without explicit threats of force, overlapping maritime disputes involving sovereignty and sovereign rights, and the irregularity of FONOPs' conduct. The analysis categorizes FONOPs as ambiguous signals that may convey US resolve to uphold navigation rights, coercive intent (either deterrent or compellent), and broader diplomatic messages such as bolstering alliance commitments and checking China's regional ambitions. The article concludes that US FONOPs in the South China Sea are best understood as general deterrent signals, signals to uphold extended deterrence for allies, and signals aimed at constraining China, while also cautioning policymakers to consider the unintended political consequences arising from signalling ambiguity.