Species distribution modeling of North American beavers from the late Pliocene into the future.

This article focuses on modeling the historical, present, and future distributions of the North American beaver (Castor canadensis) across the continent in relation to climatic changes. Using ecological niche modeling with MaxEnt software and bioclimatic data from sources such as WorldClim and PaleoClim, the study reconstructs beaver habitat suitability during the late Pliocene (3.3 Ma), Pleistocene (130 ka and 21 ka), recent Holocene (1970–2000), and projects future distributions for 2081–2100 under a high-emission climate scenario (SSP 3–7.0). Results indicate that beaver habitats shifted southward during cooler periods (Pliocene MIS M2 and Last Glacial Maximum) and expanded northward during warmer periods (Last Interglacial and future projections), with precipitation seasonality, isothermality, and mean annual temperature being key factors influencing habitat suitability. The study highlights that ongoing and future climate change may alter beaver distributions, potentially impacting ecosystem services they provide, and suggests that further modeling under varied climate scenarios could inform conservation priorities.