Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.

This article focuses on projecting the impact of interruptions or cessation of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program on new HIV infections in 11 US states from 2025 to 2030. The Ryan White Program provides comprehensive services—including AIDS Drug Assistance, outpatient health services, and support services—to over half of the 1.2 million people with HIV in the United States, contributing to higher viral suppression rates and reduced HIV transmission. Using a dynamic HIV transmission model, the study estimates that permanent discontinuation of Ryan White services could result in approximately 69,700 additional HIV infections (a 68% increase), while temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years could lead to 27,000 and 54,000 additional infections, respectively, with variation across states. These findings underscore the critical role of the Ryan White Program in preventing HIV transmission and highlight potential setbacks in controlling the US HIV epidemic if funding or services are disrupted.