Containing the COVID-19 Pandemic Under an External Threat: A Case Study of Taiwan.

This article examines how Taiwanese citizens' trust in China influences their satisfaction with Taiwan's government COVID-19 policies during the pandemic, using data from six waves of the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) between 2020 and 2022. The study finds a statistically significant negative correlation between trust in China and satisfaction with domestic COVID-19 policy, particularly during periods of heightened cross-Strait tensions, which diminishes as the pandemic stabilizes. Two theoretical mechanisms—the "rally 'round the flag effect," where external threats increase support for the government, and the "scapegoat effect," where blame is assigned to China for pandemic-related difficulties—are proposed to explain this relationship. The findings highlight the impact of external geopolitical factors on public opinion and domestic policy evaluations in Taiwan, emphasizing the interplay between international relations and public health governance.