Vaccination Strategies against HPV Infection and Cervical Cancer in China: A Transmission Modeling Study.

This article focuses on modeling the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies on cervical cancer elimination in China. Using an age-stratified deterministic compartmental model calibrated with epidemiological and demographic data, the study projects that without vaccination, HPV infection remains endemic, causing approximately 2.92 million cervical cancer cases from 2021 to 2070. Prioritizing vaccination for females aged 15 to 26 years maximizes per-dose effectiveness, but expanding vaccination to all females aged 15 years and older significantly accelerates elimination timelines, potentially achieving WHO elimination targets by the mid-2030s. The model highlights that even a single year of vaccination confers over 50 years of protection and underscores vaccination as the cornerstone of cervical cancer prevention, with integration of screening and treatment necessary to address non–vaccine-targeted HPV types.