The Dynamics of Domestic Violence: Learning about the Match.

This article presents a dynamic lifecycle model analyzing how women make decisions about partnership status, labour supply, and fertility under uncertainty about whether a male partner is violent. Using longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the model incorporates Bayesian learning where women update beliefs about a partner’s abusive nature based on observed behavior over time. Findings indicate that uncertainty leads women to delay and reduce fertility, divorce more often, and increase labour supply, thereby reducing overall exposure to abuse. Counterfactual simulations show that higher female wages modestly decrease abuse by empowering women economically, while policies such as increased income support for single mothers and subsidised childcare encourage early fertility and can inadvertently increase abuse exposure, particularly toward mothers and their children. The study highlights the complex interplay between learning, fertility, labour supply, and abuse risk, emphasizing the importance of considering dynamic behavioural responses in policy design.