Abortion Opinion and Partisan Choice: Untangling the Causal Dynamics.

This article examines the causal relationship between abortion attitudes and party identification among U.S. voters from 1982 to 1997, a period when abortion emerged as a key partisan issue dividing Republicans and Democrats. Using data from the Youth Parent Socialization Panel Study (YPSPS), the study finds that for ideologically engaged (IE) voters—especially women—initial abortion opinions more often prompted changes in party identification than vice versa, leading to downstream effects on presidential vote choice in 1996. In contrast, the majority of ideologically unengaged (IU) voters showed little partisan realignment, with only a small subset (northern, White, non-Catholic men) adjusting abortion views to fit party allegiance. The findings highlight abortion as a unique, morally charged issue capable of reshaping partisan loyalties among attentive voters, illustrating that issue-based realignment can occur when party elites sharply divide on a salient policy matter.