Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,153 Subnational Regions.

This article investigates whether subnational regions’ propensity to secede is primarily driven by differences in income per capita or by distinct ethnolinguistic identities. Using a quantitative political economy model calibrated with high-resolution global data on population, income, and language for 3,153 first-level administrative regions across 177 countries, the study finds that ethnolinguistic identity is the dominant factor influencing secessionist sentiment. Counterfactual analyses show that removing linguistic identity differences nearly eliminates support for secession, while equalizing income per capita has little effect. The model’s predictions align closely with observed secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, conflict data, and the historical breakup of the Soviet Union, suggesting that identity differences, more than economic disparities, shape territorial stability worldwide.