The effect of Brexit on British workers living in Portugal: a synthetic control method approach.

This article examines the impact of Brexit on the Portuguese labour market, focusing specifically on UK-dependent workers—those employed with eligibility for social protection—in Portugal. Using the synthetic control method to create a counterfactual scenario where the UK remained in the EU, the study finds that Brexit led to a significant reduction (approximately 40% by 2018) in the number of UK-dependent workers in Portugal, particularly among non-university-educated, male individuals with temporary contracts. This decline is primarily attributed to a decrease in new UK workers entering the Portuguese labour market, while UK citizens already employed there before Brexit tended to remain. The study also notes that although dependent employment decreased, registrations of self-employed and retired UK citizens increased, likely due to administrative adjustments following Brexit rather than new arrivals.